[Sosfbay-discuss] Pombo and the 11th CD. - Analysis for Political Junkies only.

[Wes Rolley]

I really appreciate Alex's post.  It was one of three that I received with the
same NY Times link.  The other two came from a local Morgan Hill resident who is
about as fed up as I am and offered to put any opponent to Pombo on the local
Public Access TV station.  The other came from my son-in-law in Brooklyn where
he and my daughter are fighting big money, all development is great, taken what
every you need through eminent domain politics there.  (At least there is a an
active Green Party in Brooklyn and a viable candidate, Gloria Mattera.)

I wish that I could say the same about San Joaquin County where over 50% of the
district lies.  It is impossible to contact anyone associated with a San Joaquin
County Council, the San Joaquin Greens WWW site dates from 2004 at the latest,
and much from 2002. The only real activist there is Kamran Alavi and I
understand that he plans to move out of San Joaquin County if he has not done so
already.

That said, the Democrats have 2 announced candidates with some money.  Steve
Filson is affluent, from Danville, has support of Ellen Tauscher for whom he
once campaigned and has demonstrated absolutely no understand of the Central
Valley or it's current issues.  The last time Tauscher picked a candidate, it
was the same story and she lost by  about 2-1 and her campaign committee still
owes +/- $250K as of the 9/30 FEC reports.  Tauscher has gotten Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee to provide public endorsement and financial
support for Filson.

On the other hand, Wind Power engineer Jerry McNerney has some grassroots
support but is still not viewed as "from the valley".  He is serious, thorough
un un-charismatic.  But, in terms of small, local contributions to his campaign,
he has about 4 times as much in contributions, though with the outside money,
Filson has about twice as much in total as McNerney.  McNerney did run in 2004
against Pombo as a "write in" for the primary and, without Democratic Party
support, polled 50% more than the "anointed", supported Shaw had in the previous
campaign.

So far, the Democrats have been absolutely Stupid and Tauscher has shown that
she basically does not understand what is going on.  If this is all that was
happening, I would say that the situation were very bleak for unseating Pombo.

There are two wild cards in play and no one knows what will happen. First, some
local republicans who happen to be environmentalists have contacted Republicans
for Environmental Protection, a national lobby within the Republican Party, with
the goal of generating primary opposition to Pombo.  The second is the "maybe
will happen" entry into the race of Margee Ensign.  One anti-Pombo email lists
says this of Ensign after having a long conversation with her.

> Margee Ensign is Dean of the School of International Studies at the University of 
Pacific in Stockton. She has big name recognition and respect in the Valley. She is
an accomplished woman, very bright, energetic, and intelligent. She is on top of
the
issues locally, nationally, and internationally in ways that I have not seen in the
other candidates, or even Pombo for that matter.
>  
> My opinion has always been that a successful candidate must come out of the 
Central Valley. A strong candidate must be known as someone who has contributed
and worked hard for the Stockton area community. Ensign, as Dean, has certainly
done this. Her work at the International Studies institute has benefited Stockton.
She has been actively involved in the community. Also, she writes a column in the
Stockton Record, plus hosts a cable TV show, " The Real Reality", through the
Peace and Justice Network of San Joaquin (www.pjnsjc.org).

> She presented me with some real concerns about the Valley -- high poverty, 
high infant mortality, air pollution, degraded water quality, high asthma rates,
poor educational system, lack of high-end jobs.


I would draw a lesson here for us.  As Greens, we have focused on the "big"
issues: End the War, Gay Rights, Bush the bastard, etc.  As Greens, we have done
much less to connect strongly to local conditions and issues that mean
something.  To quote a famous Democratic Speaker of the House of
Representatives, Tip O'Neil, "All politics is local."  If the Green Party does
not learn to do that, it will never  succeed.  Where we have done that well,
Sebastopol, Arcata, Sana Monica we have done comparatively well.  I will make
the flat statement that the reasons the Green Party has not been successful with
maintaining a presence in the Central Valley are the facts  that (1) the party
has not paid attention to local issues  and (2) it is dominated by those who
somehow have written off the Central Valley as Red Country and have not made the
substantial effort to rectify that.

The Democrats in the 11th CD seem more interested in rewarding old campaign
workers than they are in winning an election.  If they don't hearken to Tip
O'Neill and support Ensign, they will probably lose again.  If the DCCC
continues to back Filson, they are suffering from a cranial-rectal dislocation.

If I were going to work on the Central Valley, I would start with someone who
understands agricultural issues.  It should also be someone who can speak
Spanish if not someone Hispanic.  Just consider, the only regularly schedule
passenger flights out of the Stockton Airport are to Guadalahara.  It should
also be someone who has Alex's sense of outrage over injustice wherever you find
it.

-- 
"I find I have a great lot to learn – or unlearn. I seem to know far too much
and this knowledge obscures the really significant facts, but I am getting on."
-- Charles Rennie Mackintosh

Wesley C. Rolley
17211 Quail Court
Morgan Hill, CA 95037
(408)778-3024
http://www.refpub.com/