[Sosfbay-discuss] It's the "Oh Shit!" Moment on Iran

[Drew Johnson]

Who knows if this will come to pass, but it IS the right time of year when
the weather is optimal for military enterprises in the Middle East.

Green is alert!

Drew Johnson
California


It's the "Oh Shit!" Moment on Iran
Submitted by dlindorff on Tue, 2008-03-11 22:32.

By Dave Lindorff

Every horror movie has that "Oh Shit!" moment, when the hero or heroes are
huddled in some creepy hideout, and suddenly something happens that tells
you that the monster is just around the corner, or just about to attack.
In "Jurassic Park" it was the pulsing ripples in a cup of water, heralding
the arrival of a T-Rex. In "Jaws" it was the deep base music, letting you
know that a monstrous shark was about to attack.

Well, we just got our "Oh Shit!" moment with the just-announced
resignation of Admiral William J. Fallon, the military commander of US
Middle East operations.

Adm. Fallon, 63, famously said that an attack on Iran would not happen "on
my watch," and is widely believed to have already threatened, along with a
number of other top generals and admirals, to quit the service if the Bush
administration were to launch an air attack on Iran.

Put the pieces together. We know that the vice president is obsessed with
a desire to attack Iran, and has been since before he even took office.
Bush has repeatedly stressed that Iran cannot be permitted to continue
with its nuclear processing (he calls it their "nukular" bomb program,
though there is no evidence that the country has a nuclear bomb
development program, and in fact the last National Intelligence Estimate
on Iran said there was not and hadn't been since 2003). And Fallon has now
quit.

The Eisenhower nuclear aircraft carrier strike force has departed for
stationing off Iran, joining forces already in place there, and loaded to
the brim with strike aircraft, Tomahawk missiles, and even nuclear
weapons. It was long ago reported that stealth bombers had been put in
place in come of the countries of the old Soviet Union north of Iran, as
well as on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

All the elements, that is to say, are in place for a massive air assault
on Iranian targets, designed to destroy its nuclear program, cripple its
military command and control, and--at least this is a stated Cheney
goal--to lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government by its own
people.

It is, of course, the strategy of madmen.

The US has no forces to send into Iran. All they can do is bomb it. And
bombing a country doesn't lead its people to rise up. It leads them to
rally 'round the flag. Especially when the civilian casualties of our
not-so-"smart" bombs start to soar.

If such an attack were to happen, we can kiss goodbye to six years of
domestic peace, such as we've had. The Iranians have considerable
capability to inflict damage on US targets of interest, both overseas and
here in the domestic US using assymetrical warfare techniques. The worse
part is, they'd be completely justified in doing so, since any attack on
them would be a crime against peace--the gravest of all international
crimes.

American troops already mired and pinned down in a war in Iraq, would find
themselves suddenly under attack by Shia forces there, who for several
years now have been largely leaving them alone.

And oil, which just bumped up against $110 a barrel, an all-time record,
will double in price overnight, as the whole Persian Gulf becomes a war
zone.

We can expect massive launches of small boats armed with missiles and
torpedoes, as well as sophisticated anti-ship missiles from shore
batteries, all fired at US ships in the Gulf, and it would be astounding
if some or even many vessels of the US fleet weren't sunk.

Meanwhile, tanker traffic in the Gulf, which accounts for 20% or more of
the world's oil, will cease as insurance rates for those vessels goes
through the roof.

The monster of war will be unleashed, and will not easily be defeated.
That's why Adm. Fallon was so opposed to the whole idea. He knows that it
will be a disaster for the US militarily, economically and politically.

The worst part is that Cheney knows this, too. He just doesn't care. This
is the man's parting shot as he leaves office--to put the country into the
throes of a war so vicious that no one will think of pursuing him for his
long list of crimes against the nation and the Constitution.

He is guessing--and he may be right--that the American public will,
sheep-like as always, rally to the cause, with a new round of yellow
magnet "ribbons" on their cars. He is hoping--and he may be right--that
war will be a boon for the candidacy of Republican John McCain and for
embattled Republicans running for Congress.

It's a kind of political Hail Mary.

Oh Shit! Here it comes!
______________
DAVE LINDORFF is a Philadelphia-based journalist and columnist. His latest
book is "The Case for Impeachment" (St. Martin's Press, 2006 and now in
paperback). His work is available at www.thiscantbehappening.net