[GPSCC-chat] Food costs keep climbing. Time to think Greens

[Wes Rolley]

I have just submitted my most recent column for the MH Times. It should 
run on Tuesday, but you can read it now.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the 
cost of food increased in February for the eighth consecutive month and 
reached an all time high. You heard a bit of this in the news coverage 
of the grassroots protests in Tunisia and Egypt. While not even the 
major cause of the unrest, frustration over the cost of food played a part.

I read a comment today on a blog that had posted it's take on this fact. 
Someone said “In the U.S., where we spend less than 20% of household 
income on food, at least at first, this will have little impact on us. 
However, over time it will become more and more of an issue. “

I had to disagree. It is already becoming an issue. Most residents of 
this suburbanite enclave might be somewhat immune to the rising costs, 
limiting their reactions to a bit of grumbling while loading up at 
Safeway or Nob Hill. That would not be the case were you dependent on a 
Food Bank for your next meal. They are being forced to purchase a larger 
portion of their supplies and these are costing more every month.

It is useful to understand the causes of this unprecedented rise in 
prices. I find three of them to be key: extreme weather events, the cost 
of fossil fuels and US Energy / Agriculture policy.

We have seen enough of the extreme weather events in the news that some 
have begun to write about catastrophe fatigue. Most importantly, the 
extreme heat in Russia last year severely damaged their wheat crop. 
Russia has stopped exporting wheat. That might not be so bad had we not 
had two more extreme events that affect world wide wheat prices. There 
is a long lasting drought in the Shandong province of China, their major 
wheat production area. This will reduce the 2011 crops and maybe eve 
2012 depending on how long the drought lasts... remember that we are 
just coming out of a three year drought. Among the other wheat 
exporters, Australia is very limited due to droughts in the Southwest 
and floods in Queensland.

Without opening up the discussion of whether or not climate change is 
human caused, this increase in extreme weather events is to be expected 
given the undeniable fact that our weather is warming.

Most of world-wide agriculture is very dependent on factory scale 
application of fertilizers, chiefly nitrogen that is derived from 
natural gas. That is only one link. Another is the fact that less and 
less of our food supply is grown locally, requiring significant fuel use 
just to transport it from the field to the table. It is no longer like 
the days when I was a student when we ate whatever was available locally 
and a mandarin orange was a Christmas stocking treat. The next time you 
go shopping, look at the country of origin on the item and think about 
the cost of getting that into your shopping cart.

It is a privilege to be able to eat peaches in February and kiwi in 
July. We just need to acknowledge that there is a cost for that 
privilege and that cost will continue to rise. We are using more fossil 
fuel energy every year and finding less new energy reserves. That can 
not be good for reducing costs.

Finally, I listed US Energy and Ag policies as one of the causes. At 
present, over 10% of the world-wide corn production is consumed to 
produce ethanol for fuel. In the US, this is over 30%. This is good the 
for big corporate agribusiness which is getting massive governmental 
subsidies while it over uses inputs of natural gas derived nitrogen. It 
is not good for you and I, but we can't do anything about it. The 
politics is such that corn state senators will block any effort to 
change either the ethanol requirement or the subsidies for corn.

Come to think of it, our CA Senators favor subsidies for Ag's commodity 
crops themselves, just cotton and rice rather than corn.

So what are we to do? My wife and I grow as much of our own food as we 
can. We share with neighbors. We joined the California Rare Fruit 
Growers to learn more about what we should be doing. I registered Green 
as the big parties just don't get it yet. I have joined Transition 
California to help us all prepare for the days when the costs of fossil 
fuels and the price of food leads us down the same path followed by the 
Tunisians and Egyptians.