[GPSCC-chat] Economic snafu?

[Gerry Gras]

It's now one month after the Herndon, Ash, Pollin (HAP)
paper,
http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/ 
,
was released showing errors and controversial
aspects of the Reinhart Rogoff paper,
http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com/related-research/growth-in-a-time-of-debt-featured-in 
.

The conversation continues among those concerned about
economic matters.  Opinions range from "austerity is
dead" to "nothing has changed".

I am still shocked that such basic errors could go
undetected for over 3 years, despite the importance
of the paper in the real world.

I think Paul Krugman has a fairly good explanation
in the New York Review of Books.  It's a bit long,
but I think well worth it, considering the topic.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jun/06/how-case-austerity-has-crumbled/

...

I think the story of how the errors came to light is
interesting.

Apparently it was not easy to get the data:
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/not-following-professional-ethics-matters-also

I think how Herndon (a graduate student) found the errors
is interesting and funny:
http://www.businessinsider.com/thomas-herndon-replication-exercise-2013-4
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/425749/april-23-2013/austerity-s-spreadsheet-error---thomas-herndon

Gerry


Gerry Gras wrote:
>
> FYI,
>
> A few articles about how US and world economic policy
> discussions include some basic errors.
>
> "Economists: Sorry About That Mass Unemployment"
> http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/economists-sorry-about-that-mass-unemployment.html
>
>
> "How an Excel error fueled panic over the federal debt"
> http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-debt-excel-error-20130416,0,4073638.story
>
>
> "UPDATE 1-Influential economic study on austerity may be flawed"
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/global-economy-debt-idUSL2N0D32AU20130416
>
>
> If you want to know more, try a search for "debt 90 gdp".
>
> Offhand, it seems that this should cause a reevaluation
> of economic policy.
>
> Gerry
>