[GPSCC-chat] Thoughts about lesser-of-two-evils

[Gerry Gras]

(This is a hot topic on the GPCA Forum and on the GPSMC
discussion list, so I wrote this for them and thought
I'd share it with you, FWIW.)


	Thoughts on the Lesser of Two Evils Concept

People are arguing that Greens should vote for Hillary, or at
least not vote for Jill, because Hillary is the "lesser of two
evils".  The basic argument, as I understand it, is
1) not voting for Hillary makes it more likely that Trump will win
2) Trump is more evil
3) the world will be worse off if Trump (the more evil candidate) wins
4) so not voting for Hillary means the world is likely to be worse

And I think there are a few subtexts:
A) If a Green does not vote for Hillary, and Trump is elected,
    then that Green is morally irresponsible
B) nothing else matters next to who gets elected president
C) if a Green does not vote for Hillary, he/she must be doing
    so for invalid, selfish, and/or stupid reasons
D) No one other than Hillary and Trump has a chance of winning
    the election.

Consider the above:
1) not voting for Hillary makes it more likely that Trump will win?
First, consider it from an individual perspective.  How one
person votes does not matter when the front runner in the same
state is ahead by more than one vote, OR the state switching does
not cause the Electoral College to switch.  (NOTE: Some recognize
the truth of the Electoral College implications, but few act on it.)
The odds of that happening are VERY small.  But not impossible.
(FWIW, I found the movie "Swing Vote" entertaining,
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1027862/ .)
And in that case, does that voter bear ALL the responsibility?
What about all the other voters who did or did not vote for
Hillary / Trump / Jill / Gary / other?

Second, consider it from a group perspective.  A few percent in a
"swing state" can make the difference.  But how reliable is the
designation of "swing state" or "non swing state", especially in
2016?  There were a few upsets in the primaries, there might be
some in the general election.

2) Trump is more evil?
He has said a lot of things that offend a lot of people.  He also
has been on both sides of some issues.  Comedy Central has a video
of the "Trump vs. Trump debate".  He looks like a loose cannon.
He's definitely scary to a lot of people including myself.  ...
But so is Hillary.  Her track record is troublesome.  Polls indicate
that both Hillary and Trump have high unfavorability ratings.

Consider our history of wars...
(I'm not listing them all, there are too many, but these are
the major ones, in my opinion, during the time we have had the
Democratic and Republican Parties.)
1861-1965 - Lincoln (R) - Civil War
1898-1898 - McKinley (R) - Spanish American War
1917-1918 - Wilson (D) - World War I
1941-1945 - Roosevelt (D) / Truman (D) - World War II
1950-1953 - Truman (D) - Korean War
1963-1963 - Kennedy (D) - Cuban Missile Crisis
	(technically not a war, but there was a significant
	chance of having World War III)
1965-1973 - Johnson (D) / Nixon (R) - Vietnam War
	(Johnson said he did not want to have American boys
	die in Asia, but in the end he did.  And in the
	1964 election, Goldwater was projected to be a hawk,
	and LBJ was supposed to be for peace.  About 55,000
	Americans and about 2,000,000 Vietnamese died in that war.)
2001-present - Bush, Jr. (R) / Obama (D) / ??? - Mideast Wars
	(Some say Gore would have kept us out of war.  I am
	skeptical.  There was a lot of bipartisan support for
	various problematic decisions after 9/11.)

3) the world will be worse off if Trump (the more evil candidate) wins?
Trump will not be dictator.  Yes, he has some executive privileges,
and there are problems with our governmental checks and balances,
but there are limits.  Also, presidents are often able to do things
the other party would like to do but can't because of party opposition.
For example, Nixon going to "Red China" and Bill Clinton passing
NAFTA and "welfare reform" and ending Glass-Steagal.

4) so not voting for Hillary means the world is likely to be worse?
Only if assumptions 1, 2, and 3 are correct.

A) If a Green does not vote for Hillary, and Trump is elected,
    then that Green is morally irresponsible?
Without knowing the details about how one makes a decision,
how can anyone judge someone else as immoral?  This situation
is not as simple as murder or thievery.  All that can be said
is "I disagree" or "I find that offensive".

B) nothing else matters next to who gets elected president?
Congress matters.  The states matter.  How the public responds
to the government matters.  What happens in 2020 matters.
What happens in 2024 matters.

C) if a Green does not vote for Hillary, he/she must be doing
    so for invalid, selfish, and/or stupid reasons?
See A) above.

D) No one other than Hillary and Trump has a chance of winning
    the election?
There is an implicit assumption that NO ONE other than
Hillary or Trump has a chance.  I know, I know, many will laugh
at the concept that any other candidate could win.  But life is
full of surprises, and by now it should be clear that in 2016,
we don't have business as usual.  So who knows?  Remember, most
people, even many in the Sanders campaign, were surprised at
how well Sanders did.  I was surprised.  Weren't you?

People have said that noone would ever run a mile in less
than 4 minutes, but it happened.  People said we could never
make an airplane that could fly.  In 1986 the pundits said
that it would take 10 to 30 years for the Berlin Wall to
come down, but it came down 3 years later.

The world is full of surprises.

... Finally a word about responsibility.

Because our electoral system only counts "yes" votes and there
are no "no" votes, a candidate only can win by getting enough
"yes" votes.  Really, those who vote for a winning candidate
bear the responsibility for that candidate's actions in office,
not the ones who vote for a losing candidate.

On a personal note, the only vote I regret was voting for Bill
Clinton in 1992, because then I felt partly responsible for
his actions.

If I were to vote for Hillary and she won, I would be responsible
for her actions, good and bad.

If I were to vote for Jill and she won, I would be responsible
for her actions, good and bad.

Gerry