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The following was written from the perspective of the 11th CD. I sent
it to some other activists there, including one researcher on
McCloskey's campaign staff. However, the comments here also apply to
the Green Party across California, and in particular to the
relationship between the GP and MAPA. Camejo will be in LA to day to
hold a press conference about the eviction of a group of "community
farmers" (mostly Hispanic) in S. LA. There will was a Camejo press
release yesterday on this issue and a planned press release from the GP
today -- double hit. <br>
<br>
I have also suggested that we need a more generalized press release on
imigration and the copied text explains why now. <br>
__<br>
I have been thinking about how the immigration issue might play out in
the 11th CD race. It is not easy, partly because of the fact that this
is a distinctly Republican race and a very Republican issue. I am
trying to write something for PomboWatch, but what I have does not work
yet. There are, however, some important reasons why the timing to do
something is now. Let me first, just list the rationale about timing. <br>
<br>
- the Pew Hispanic Center released a <a
href="http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=61">study</a>
on March 7. that says the "Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12
million for the unauthorized population as of March 2006."<br>
<br>
- on March 8, the United Farm Workers sent out an action alert to
contact Senator Feinstein as the Senate Judiciary committee was to
start considering a new immigration bill. Feinstein and Ariz. Sen. Kyl
recently co-sponsored a bill making it a crime to put a tunnel under
the boreder. <br>
<br>
- also on March 8, a new <a
href="http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2185.pdf">Feild
Poll</a> was released re: <font face="Arial, sans-serif" size="-1">Growing
differences between
voters and non-voters about perceived impact illegal immigrants are
having on state and whether they should be issued driver's licenses.
Broad-based support for guest worker program. That poll was well
covered by KGO-TV (ABC-7) last night. <br>
<br>
In the little book store discussion that McCloskey and Benigno had with
some Tracy voters, it seems that the issue of immigration was the major
question raised. <br>
<br>
Perhaps, the key things about this are:<br>
<br>
- the PEW statistics will be used to generate scare tactics by
minuteman style organizations. <br>
<br>
- the Field Poll shows an interesting split in California population
about immigration: This split indicates differences between Republican
and Democratic voters and also between registered voters and
non-registered voters. The latter is the biggest difference. Consider
the following quote from the poll report.<br>
__<br>
Between 1982 and 1994 The Field Poll found a slight decline in the
large majority of the state’s<br>
residents who viewed illegal immigrants as having a negative effect on
the state. For example, in<br>
1982, 75% felt illegal immigrants had an unfavorable impact on the
state, while just 19% thought<br>
their overall impact was favorable. This narrowed a bit to a 69% to 23%
margin in 1987 and to a<br>
67% to 26% margin in 1994. However, in the current survey, the
proportions of residents who<br>
feel illegal immigrants are having an unfavorable impact has declined
to 45%, while about as<br>
many (47%) now feel they are having a favorable impact."<br>
__<br>
However, this split widens when you consider ethnicity and voter
registration status.<br>
__<br>
"There are also big differences among subgroups of the registered voter
population. Registered<br>
Republicans are most one-sided in their belief that the effects illegal
immigrants are having on the<br>
state are unfavorable, with 71% holding to this view. On the other
hand, registered Democrats are<br>
about evenly split on the matter.<br>
<br>
Regardless of their voting status, white non-Hispanics and Latinos also
hold very different views<br>
on this subject. The former group, by a 58% to 33% margin, sees the
overall impact of illegal<br>
immigrants in an unfavorable light. By contrast, three-fourths (75%) of
Latinos believe that<br>
illegal immigrants have a generally positive effect on the state."<br>
__<br>
<br>
Other polls seem to back this up: According to the web site of the
Republican National Hispanic Assembly...<br>
<br>
</font><b>According to a survey conducted by <a
href="http://www.rnha.org/News/Immigration/Overview-slides.pdf">The
Terrance Group</a>, 72% of registered likely GOP voters favor
comprehensive immigration reform legislation, focusing on border
security, interior enforcement and a worker program with an option for
earned legalization for the undocumented.<br>
</b><font face="Arial, sans-serif" size="-1"><br>
When you look at Pombo's voting record over his entire career, this is
pretty much how he voted except for the last phrase. "</font><b>a
worker program with an option for earned legalization for the
undocumented."</b> On that matter, his is on record against it. The
most recent votes show this. He voted for the "Sensenbrenner'
immigration bill in Dec. 2005. When the AgJOBS bill came up in 2004,
he supported all of its provisions except for the ability to earn
credits toward citizenship. <br>
<br>
After sorting through all of this, I would have to say that the only
vulnerability for Pombo among Hispanics might be that his pattern of
support will always be in the tradition of the Bracero Program, where
you are good enough to work for slave wages but not good enough to
really join society as equal citizens. <br>
<br>
There needs to be a way to make Pombo take a stand on this issue, and
do it quickly. I don't think that McCloskey can do that, as the overall
pattern of Republican voters in San Joaquin County is likely to be more
like Pombo than like the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. Then,
the raising of that issue has to be coupled with a voter registration
campaign among Hispanic's by the parties of the left.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="80">--
"Anytime you have an opportunity to make things better and you don't, then you are wasting your time on this Earth" Roberto Clemente
Wes Rolley
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.refpub.com/">http://www.refpub.com/</a>
Tel: 408.778.3024</pre>
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