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<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.morganhilltimes.com/opinion/278067-sustained-growth-is-no-longer-feasible">http://www.morganhilltimes.com/opinion/278067-sustained-growth-is-no-longer-feasible</a><br>
<br>
<span class="style9">Sustained growth is no longer feasible</span><br>
<div class="style3"><span class="style3 style10">10:36 AM</span><br>
<span class="style3 style10"> By </span><a
href="mailto:editor@morganhilltimes.com" class="style3 style10">Wes
Rolley</a></div>
<br>
<span class="style3 style11">Last week's Times showed us two reasons
that we need to be concerned about growth. One was the Times
editorial focusing on the fact that there are so many housing
allotments that have been awarded, but not built. The other was
the fact that the Morgan Hill Unified School District is losing
rather than gaining students. The combination illustrates two of
the pitfalls in planning for growth.<br>
<br>
Like any community, Morgan Hill would love to be able to digest
population growth like a leisurely dinner with friends, filling
allotted slots each year. We are told that builders are not using
their allocations for economic reasons, that they can not afford
to build homes when credit is not available or the foreclosures
have made the current stock of housing more affordable.<br>
<br>
Even if the rate of housing growth were constant, it still does
not guarantee schools will be able to plan accordingly. There are,
again, more options for families. Some will send their children to
private schools. Other families will choose not to have as many
children, a seemingly wise choice when the economy is no longer
predictable.<br>
<br>
Our president hardly opens his mouth without mentioning the need
to grow jobs. In that, his detractors, both Republican and
Democratic, seem to agree. But the supply of jobs is not growing
in the US. Even in California where one would expect innovation to
create new jobs faster than we can fill the old ones, unemployment
remains higher than 10 percent and in neighboring San Benito
County, it is higher than 20 percent.<br>
<br>
Maybe it is time to stop and ask ourselves whether the historical
rates of growth are really possible. Increasingly, we are seeing
events that fall outside the expected range if one's only
reference is the historical record. Considering climate, the
current drought and heat dome that has engulfed Texas is
unprecedented and nearly unbearable. The analysis provided by the
Texas State Climatologist shows that the 2011 drought is clearly
outside the range of normal event. It may be enough to change the
way that people think about living in Texas, about the quality of
life there, and that will surely affect growth and the finances of
local government.<br>
<br>
For growth to continue, we need to be able to provide physical
material to support it. But since the Earth is a finite source of
everything, it may not always be possible. The list of things
currently, or soon to be, in short supply seems to get longer
every day. Lithium for new batteries is limited currently to just
two major mining sources. The rare earth materials used in our
increasingly innovative electronics are currently 80 percent
sourced from China and the only other known major source requires
deep seabed mining technology to be developed.<br>
<br>
Californians know that fresh water is in limited supply. And for
energy, we have to consider that the supplies of both oil and coal
have peaked while a recent analysis of well head data shows that
the supplies of natural gas that have been so abundantly
advertised have also been overestimated by 100 percent. Some have
even made the case that we have already passed the peak of uranium
production with a corresponding increase in the costs of nuclear
power.<br>
<br>
Any one of these limits could have a major negative effect on our
economy. In particular, the costs of energy production are
increasing. We have gotten to all of the easy oil, coal and
natural gas while we seem unable to fully endorse the replacement
from renewable sources. Taken together, these physical world
realities also place limits on economic growth, if not now, then
in the not to distant future. There is a special term for
investments that can only return value by securing new
investments. It is called a Ponzi Scheme. The same term could be
applied to the idea that we can sustain perpetual economic growth.<br>
<br>
It no longer makes sense for any political entity to base fiscal
policies on the assumption that current spending can be paid for
by future growth. We can see what this has done for the national
economy and we are paying for the cost by shedding jobs and a
Congressional Circus to distract us from reality. We can see what
this has done for the State of California where we take the money
from education. The problem we have to solve locally is how to
provide for a slowly growing population with declining resources.
It will require resetting our priorities and developing a new
vision of what Morgan Hill needs to be.</span><br>
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