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After a change in the editorial responsibilities at the paper, I am
back writing an occasional OpEd. This is my latest. It is
dependent on the fact that Morgan Hill is going through an update to
it's General Plan. While that is not true of most cities, <tt>he
basic idea still holds. It is idiotic for cities to become
dependent on growth to fund government. It will become
increasingly likely that governments will face bankruptcy. </tt><br>
<br>
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<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">The City of Morgan Hill is now in the
process of updating the community's General Plan. According to a
recent headlined story in the Times, they are not satisfied with
citizen participation. That sent me to the web site Morgan Hill
2035. And, after reading the section on the Economy, I decided to
participate, returning to the task of writing a Green Talk column,
an effort that I set aside after the 2012 election. I am not sure
that the City will welcome my return. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">My main concern was to make sure that
the economic assumptions behind the new plan are right. While
there are some easily corrected mistakes in the Economic Plan
document, such as double counting work location in Table 1-5 so
that we have 191.5% of workers accounted for. My real problem with
these economic assumptions is the fact that they are premised on
continued growth, both in population and in the tax base that
supports City services. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">If the experiences of the past seven
or eight years will teach us anything, it should be that economic
growth is a fickle thing, here today but always at risk. When
government is depended on sales taxes to fund it's activities, it
needs to be attentive to those things which affect consumer
behavior. To the extent that we depend on real estate taxes, as
the housing debacle of 2007/8 demonstrated, governments are forced
to cut spending and their only segment of their budget where than
can cut enough to make a difference is employee salaries. Would it
not be much better to make sure that we don't require continuous
economic growth to keep government working? </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">Lurking in the background is the
notion that we live in a world without limits. It has always
seemed that way, especially in America where the push to the West
provided new land, new jobs and new consumers. The largess of the
land seemed without limit. But increasingly a few economists are
beginning to challenge this often unstated assumption. Most of us
have the common sense to know that the world is changing and not
necessarily for the better. We are running up against limits that
we have never before had to face. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">Let us examine the relationship
between land, water and energy. California is blessed with
abundant fertile land. It appeared that we had enough water to
farm even the drier parts of the Central Valley. You either put a
dam across a river to capture spring runoff or you pumped ground
water for irrigation. But, ground water needs to be replenished or
the land will begin to sink. That was the fate of Alviso until
government stepped in an made sure that ground water was
replenished, but not before Alviso dropped below sea level. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">Now in the second decade of this
century, we have also to face the fact that we have changed our
climate. California will become increasingly dry. Additional dams
won't provide more water if the existing reservoirs are not full.
California agriculture will surely shrink. At the same time ,we
are replenishing the soil with nitrogen from natural gas and
phosphates from abroad, 80% of the world supply coming from
Morocco. The cost of food is going to increase and then, since
Morgan Hill is basically suburban, more people will turn to their
own land as a source of food. My wife and I do that now, sourcing
almost all of our fruit and much of our vegetables from our on
garden. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">Since agriculture and transportation
are contending for the same supplies of natural gas, and that
supply will be sold at the best price, the costs for both food and
transportation will continue to rise faster than the industrial
sector can raise wages. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">Some economists, notably Herman Daly
of the Univ. of Maryland are now calling for the recognition that
a Steady State Economy is a good thing and that continued
unlimited growth is bad. Dr. Brian Czech has written a recent book
entitled Supply Shock that makes it even more clear how we got
here and where we might be headed if we do not heed the warnings.
The cliff is precipitous. </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">I am not confident that we will
listen. There were those who warned us of the housing bubble and
the financial fraud inherent in some of the derivative schemes
being marketed by Wall Street and we did not listen then. The next
crash appears to be worse than the last and will surely happen by
2035.</p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in">I would prefer to live in a community
where we have shed our dependence on growth to fund government,
where government has helped to build self-sufficiency into the
fabric of our daily lives. This General Plan update seems to be
the place where we can make that happen. </p>
<br>
<div class="moz-signature">-- <br>
"Anytime you have an opportunity to make things better and you
don't, then you are wasting your time on this Earth"
- <i>Roberto Clemente</i></div>
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