[Sosfbay-discuss] Immigration

[Wes Rolley]

The following was written from the perspective of the 11th CD.  I sent 
it to some other activists there, including one researcher on 
McCloskey's campaign staff.  However, the comments here also apply to 
the Green Party across California, and in particular to the relationship 
between the GP and MAPA.  Camejo will be in LA to day to hold a press 
conference about the eviction of a group of "community farmers" (mostly 
Hispanic) in S. LA.  There will was a Camejo press release yesterday on 
this issue and a planned press release from the GP today -- double hit.

I have also suggested that we need a more generalized press release on 
imigration and the copied text explains why now.
__
I have been thinking about how the immigration issue might play out in 
the 11th CD race.  It is not easy, partly because of the fact that this 
is a distinctly Republican race and a very Republican issue.  I am 
trying to write something for PomboWatch, but what I have does not work 
yet.  There are, however, some important reasons why the timing to do 
something is now. Let me first, just list the rationale about timing.

- the Pew Hispanic Center released a study 
<http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=61> on March 7. that 
says the "Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for the 
unauthorized population as of March 2006."

- on March 8, the United Farm Workers sent out an action alert to 
contact Senator Feinstein as the Senate Judiciary committee was to start 
considering a new immigration bill.  Feinstein and Ariz. Sen. Kyl 
recently co-sponsored a bill making it a crime to put a tunnel under the 
boreder.

- also on March 8, a new Feild Poll 
<http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2185.pdf> was released 
re: Growing differences between voters and non-voters about perceived 
impact illegal immigrants are having on state and whether they should be 
issued driver's licenses. Broad-based support for guest worker program.  
That poll was well covered by KGO-TV (ABC-7) last night.

In the little book store discussion that McCloskey and Benigno had with 
some Tracy voters, it seems that the issue of immigration was the major 
question raised.

Perhaps, the key things about this are:

- the PEW statistics will be used to generate scare tactics by minuteman 
style organizations.

- the Field Poll shows an interesting split in California population 
about immigration:  This split indicates differences between Republican 
and Democratic voters and also between registered voters and 
non-registered voters.  The latter is the biggest difference. Consider 
the following quote from the poll report.
__
Between 1982 and 1994 The Field Poll found a slight decline in the large 
majority of the state’s
residents who viewed illegal immigrants as having a negative effect on 
the state. For example, in
1982, 75% felt illegal immigrants had an unfavorable impact on the 
state, while just 19% thought
their overall impact was favorable. This narrowed a bit to a 69% to 23% 
margin in 1987 and to a
67% to 26% margin in 1994. However, in the current survey, the 
proportions of residents who
feel illegal immigrants are having an unfavorable impact has declined to 
45%, while about as
many (47%) now feel they are having a favorable impact."
__
However, this split widens when you consider ethnicity and voter 
registration status.
__
"There are also big differences among subgroups of the registered voter 
population. Registered
Republicans are most one-sided in their belief that the effects illegal 
immigrants are having on the
state are unfavorable, with 71% holding to this view. On the other hand, 
registered Democrats are
about evenly split on the matter.

Regardless of their voting status, white non-Hispanics and Latinos also 
hold very different views
on this subject. The former group, by a 58% to 33% margin, sees the 
overall impact of illegal
immigrants in an unfavorable light. By contrast, three-fourths (75%) of 
Latinos believe that
illegal immigrants have a generally positive effect on the state."
__

Other polls seem to back this up:  According to the web site of the 
Republican National Hispanic Assembly...

*According to a survey conducted by The Terrance Group 
<http://www.rnha.org/News/Immigration/Overview-slides.pdf>, 72% of 
registered likely GOP voters favor comprehensive immigration reform 
legislation, focusing on border security, interior enforcement and a 
worker program with an option for earned legalization for the undocumented.
*
When you look at Pombo's voting record over his entire career, this is 
pretty much how he voted except for the last phrase. "*a worker program 
with an option for earned legalization for the undocumented."* On that 
matter, his is on record against it. The most recent votes show this. He 
voted for the "Sensenbrenner' immigration bill in Dec. 2005.  When the 
AgJOBS bill came up in 2004, he supported all of its provisions except 
for the ability to earn credits toward citizenship.

After sorting through all of this, I would have to say that the only 
vulnerability for Pombo among Hispanics might be that his pattern of 
support will always be in the tradition of the Bracero Program, where 
you are good enough to work for slave wages but not good enough to 
really join society as equal citizens. 

There needs to be a way to make Pombo take a stand on this issue, and do 
it quickly. I don't think that McCloskey can do that, as the overall 
pattern of Republican voters in San Joaquin County is likely to be more 
like Pombo than like the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.  Then, 
the raising of that issue has to be coupled with a voter registration 
campaign among Hispanic's by the parties of the left.




-- 
"Anytime you have an opportunity to make things better and you don't, then you are wasting your time on this Earth" Roberto Clemente

Wes Rolley
http://www.refpub.com/
Tel: 408.778.3024

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