[Sosfbay-discuss] Third-party White House bid could shake up race

[JamBoi]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070518/pl_nm/usa_politics_bloomberg_dc
Third-party White House bid could shake up race

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent 2 hours,
52 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In an unpredictable 2008
presidential race, the prospect of a viable
third-party candidacy -- particularly a self-financed
bid by billionaire Michael Bloomberg -- could be the
biggest wild card of all.

Reports that Bloomberg, New York's Republican mayor,
is willing to spend a big chunk of his personal
fortune -- perhaps as much as $1 billion -- on a White
House run set off a new round of speculation about his
intentions and his possible impact on the November
2008 election.

The speculation was egged on by Sen. Chuck Hagel
(news, bio, voting record) of Nebraska, a conservative
Republican and
Iraq war opponent who also is considering an
independent bid and had dinner with Bloomberg
recently.

Hagel openly hinted about joining the mayor on a
high-octane, third-party ticket that could reshape the
political landscape and jolt the traditional U.S.
two-party system.

"It's a great country to think about -- a New York boy
and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this
nation," Hagel said earlier this week on CBS.

A third-party bid would hope to take advantage of
public discontent with the Republican and Democratic
parties, which already has led 60,000 people to sign
up for an Internet-based movement aimed at fielding a
bipartisan independent ticket in 2008.

The Unity '08 effort, led by a group of veteran
political strategists from both parties, was inspired
by the idea that both parties are dominated by their
most extreme elements and a majority of Americans are
looking for a centrist approach.

"The political system is at a point where the train
has left the track," said Doug Bailey, a consultant on
President Gerald Ford's 1976 campaign and founder of
the Hotline political newsletter.

"There is no common ground and there is no capacity to
seek common ground," said Bailey, a co-founder of the
group along with Hamilton Jordan and Gerald Rafshoon,
advisers to former President Jimmy Carter.

He said the group, which hopes to have 2 million
delegates signed up to participate in its June 2008
online nominating convention, has talked to about 40
potential candidates. He refused to say whether that
included Bloomberg and Hagel.

ACTING LIKE A CANDIDATE

Bloomberg has tried to scuttle talk about a
presidential candidacy without flatly ruling it out.
But the former Democrat, who turned Republican to run
for mayor, has been acting very much like a candidate
for something.

He revived his campaign Web site and traveled recently
to Texas and Oklahoma, two states with relatively
difficult procedures for getting independent
candidates on the ballot, to outline a plan for a
national energy policy.

Any third-party candidate would face enormous
obstacles, from meeting requirements to get on state
ballots to producing from scratch the organizations
that drive campaigns. But Bloomberg would have the
money to overcome many of the normal hurdles, analysts
said.

"Bloomberg can simply buy himself some support.
Putting a billion dollars in the race can overcome a
lot of challenges," said Jack Pitney of Claremont
McKenna College in California.

A liberal on social issues with a strong track record
as a manager and businessman, Bloomberg would probably
pull votes from both parties, Democratic political
consultant Hank Sheinkopf said.

The history of modern third-party U.S. presidential
bids offers few success stories. The most recent
third-party candidates to break double-digits in
popular vote percentage were businessman
Ross Perot, who won 19 percent in 1992, and Alabama
Gov. George Wallace, who won 13 percent in 1968.

Third-party candidates often play the role of spoiler,
most famously in 2000 when Green Party candidate
Ralph Nader was blamed by Democrats for taking enough
votes from
Al Gore in Florida to hand the White House to
Republican George W. Bush.

Public discontent does not necessarily translate into
a winning third-party run, analysts said.

"Americans like the idea of third parties, but as
we've seen repeatedly they are pretty well satisfied
with the two-party system," said public opinion
analyst Karlyn Bowman of the conservative American
Enterprise Institute.

___________________

JamBoi: Jammy, The Sacred Cow Slayer
The Green Parties' #1 Blogger
http://dailyJam.blogspot.com

"To the brave belong all things"
Celt's invading Etrusca reply to nervous Romans around 400BC

"Live humbly, laugh often and love unconditionally" (anon)


       
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