[Sosfbay-discuss] We're #5: Anaylzing Santa Clara's Voter Registration Report of 5/19/08

[Drew Johnson]

Please skip to the bottom if you just want to see all the numbers in table
form.

OUR NUMBERS:

Out of context, here's our numbers from the May 19th Secretary of State's
Report of Registration:

  Green: 4,611 people or 0.64% of all Registered Voters in Santa Clara Co.

Across the state the Green Party of CA is at 0.75% of total registration,
so we are running lower than that figure at 0.64% in our county.

Maybe a first (longer term) goal would be for us to break into what I'll
call the 'Second Tier' (10,000 or more registered) parties putting us on
par in numbers with the (ultraconservative) American Independent Party
(AIP).

[btw, for a taste of what the AIP is about here's an article about the
battle w/in the AIP to disaffiliate from the Constitution party and put
Alan Keyes on the AIP's ballot line in November.]
http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/01/ed-noonan-betrays-constitution-party/

What I'll term the 'First Tier' are parties with more than 100,000
registered voters.  We've got a ways to go there. :-)  How about let's set
our sights on the Second Tier to begin with and move from there.


ANALYZING SANTA CLARA'S ELIGIBLE TO REGISTEREDs FOR CLUES TO GROWING:

Firstly the total number of people Eligible to Register -- I'll call them
ERs -- in Santa Clara County is 1,107,353.  More than a 1.1 million
people!

(Note:'Eligible' (ERs) category does not include noncitizens, or citizens
who are minors or those currently on probation for or currently
incarcerated for felony offenses).

There are two major subcategories of ERs: Eligible but Aren't Registered)
-- I'll just call them EbARs, and Registered Voters -- I'll call RVs.

There are basically two groups to grow our registration numbers from.

1) Recruit from EbARs
(391,861 people or a whopping 35.39% of all eligible),

OR

2) Recruit from people who are what I'll whimsically dub 'Registered
PreGreens'  -- RPGs
(710,881 which is 64.19% of all eligible voters or 99.35% of the
registered voters).

Looking at the numbers, that makes the 3rd place slot in Santa Clara
'Decline to State' (ie. independent) makes up an eye-popping 24.90%.
So of the RPGs , the number of 'Decline to State' is a nice juicy
place to start recruiting.  When you come upon an RV (Registered Voter)
you have almost 1 in 4 chances that they are a 'Decline to State'.

The top three 'parties' then are #1 Democrats with nearly half 46.06%,
followed by Republicans at 25.61%, and Decline to State at 24.90%.  These
three 'parties' make up a full 96.57% of RVs (Registered Voters).

Take note that in Santa Clara our 'fourth party' is the very conservative
'American Independent' party (an affiliate of the national Constitution
party).  They break the 10,000 voters mark with 12,644 voters or 1.77% of
the total eligible voters.

We Greens are 5th followed closely by the (what I'll characterize as
'nonconformist small government conservative peacenik') Libertarian party
with the miscellaneous (probably mostly write-in names) 'Other' group and
finally the  socialist/marxist 'Peace and Freedom' trailing in last.

If I get the ambition I may put out thoughts on how we may appeal to each
of these different groups.


Green is Connection!

Drew

_____

Taken from the CA SoS's document
"Voter Participation Statistics by County and Party"
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_primary/05_voter_stats_by_party_feb08.pdf

Report of Registration as of May 19, 2008
Registration By County

County              Eligible        Registered

Santa Clara        1,107,353           715,492
                                         64.61%

FIRST TIER -- MORE THAN 100,000 VOTERS:

                                 Decline to
Democratic      Republican            State

   329,559         183,227        178,188
     46.06%          25.61%         24.90%

SECOND TIER -- MORE THAN 10,000 VOTERS:
 American
Independent

   12,644
     1.77%

THIRD TIER -- FEWER THAN 10,00 VOTERS:
                                                Peace and
   Green       Libertarian          Other         Freedom
   4,611             3,714          1,870           1,679
    0.64%             0.52%          0.26%           0.23%