[Sosfbay-discuss] We're #5: Anaylzing Santa Clara's Voter Registration Report of 5/19/08

[E. Alan Meece]

Some things to keep in mind, though you probably know;

The only reason AIP has the numebrs they do is that people register with
them thinking they are registering "Independent."

The reason Decline to State is high and getting higher is that you can
vote in either primary now, which you can't do if you register Green.
Green numbers will continue to be low as long as the open primary
applies only to Decline to State voters. For a while it applied to
everyone, but I think the courts threw it out. It should be put back I
think.

That's quite a decline for Republicans; good! Given their record and
their ideology I think their only future should be to decline and pass
from the scene. Right now we have an extreme right party; a center-right
party that has some center-left people in it, independents, and a few
small parties. I hope this changes as Americans gruadually wake up from
their current ignorance and fear. This seems to be starting.

Eric M

Drew Johnson wrote:
> 
> Please skip to the bottom if you just want to see all the numbers in table
> form.
> 
> OUR NUMBERS:
> 
> Out of context, here's our numbers from the May 19th Secretary of State's
> Report of Registration:
> 
>   Green: 4,611 people or 0.64% of all Registered Voters in Santa Clara Co.
> 
> Across the state the Green Party of CA is at 0.75% of total registration,
> so we are running lower than that figure at 0.64% in our county.
> 
> Maybe a first (longer term) goal would be for us to break into what I'll
> call the 'Second Tier' (10,000 or more registered) parties putting us on
> par in numbers with the (ultraconservative) American Independent Party
> (AIP).
> 
> [btw, for a taste of what the AIP is about here's an article about the
> battle w/in the AIP to disaffiliate from the Constitution party and put
> Alan Keyes on the AIP's ballot line in November.]
> http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/01/ed-noonan-betrays-constitution-party/
> 
> What I'll term the 'First Tier' are parties with more than 100,000
> registered voters.  We've got a ways to go there. :-)  How about let's set
> our sights on the Second Tier to begin with and move from there.
> 
> ANALYZING SANTA CLARA'S ELIGIBLE TO REGISTEREDs FOR CLUES TO GROWING:
> 
> Firstly the total number of people Eligible to Register -- I'll call them
> ERs -- in Santa Clara County is 1,107,353.  More than a 1.1 million
> people!
> 
> (Note:'Eligible' (ERs) category does not include noncitizens, or citizens
> who are minors or those currently on probation for or currently
> incarcerated for felony offenses).
> 
> There are two major subcategories of ERs: Eligible but Aren't Registered)
> -- I'll just call them EbARs, and Registered Voters -- I'll call RVs.
> 
> There are basically two groups to grow our registration numbers from.
> 
> 1) Recruit from EbARs
> (391,861 people or a whopping 35.39% of all eligible),
> 
> OR
> 
> 2) Recruit from people who are what I'll whimsically dub 'Registered
> PreGreens'  -- RPGs
> (710,881 which is 64.19% of all eligible voters or 99.35% of the
> registered voters).
> 
> Looking at the numbers, that makes the 3rd place slot in Santa Clara
> 'Decline to State' (ie. independent) makes up an eye-popping 24.90%.
> So of the RPGs , the number of 'Decline to State' is a nice juicy
> place to start recruiting.  When you come upon an RV (Registered Voter)
> you have almost 1 in 4 chances that they are a 'Decline to State'.
> 
> The top three 'parties' then are #1 Democrats with nearly half 46.06%,
> followed by Republicans at 25.61%, and Decline to State at 24.90%.  These
> three 'parties' make up a full 96.57% of RVs (Registered Voters).
> 
> Take note that in Santa Clara our 'fourth party' is the very conservative
> 'American Independent' party (an affiliate of the national Constitution
> party).  They break the 10,000 voters mark with 12,644 voters or 1.77% of
> the total eligible voters.
> 
> We Greens are 5th followed closely by the (what I'll characterize as
> 'nonconformist small government conservative peacenik') Libertarian party
> with the miscellaneous (probably mostly write-in names) 'Other' group and
> finally the  socialist/marxist 'Peace and Freedom' trailing in last.
> 
> If I get the ambition I may put out thoughts on how we may appeal to each
> of these different groups.
> 
> Green is Connection!
> 
> Drew
> 
> _____
> 
> Taken from the CA SoS's document
> "Voter Participation Statistics by County and Party"
> http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_primary/05_voter_stats_by_party_feb08.pdf
> 
> Report of Registration as of May 19, 2008
> Registration By County
> 
> County              Eligible        Registered
> 
> Santa Clara        1,107,353           715,492
>                                          64.61%
> 
> FIRST TIER -- MORE THAN 100,000 VOTERS:
> 
>                                  Decline to
> Democratic      Republican            State
> 
>    329,559         183,227        178,188
>      46.06%          25.61%         24.90%
> 
> SECOND TIER -- MORE THAN 10,000 VOTERS:
>  American
> Independent
> 
>    12,644
>      1.77%
> 
> THIRD TIER -- FEWER THAN 10,00 VOTERS:
>                                                 Peace and
>    Green       Libertarian          Other         Freedom
>    4,611             3,714          1,870           1,679
>     0.64%             0.52%          0.26%           0.23%
> 
> _______________________________________________
> sosfbay-discuss mailing list
> sosfbay-discuss at cagreens.org
> http://lists.cagreens.org/mailman/listinfo/sosfbay-discuss