[Sosfbay-discuss] Find-A-Candidate Challenge: Do you have a success story yet?

[Ray Tobey]

I think this is the most effective message the Green Party can send:

 Board of Supervisors, District 5 	Votes 	Percent
Ross Mirkarimi 	26,442 	77.62 %
Rob Anderson 	1,889 	5.55 %
Owen P. O'Donnell 	5,734 	16.83 %
Write-in 	1 	0.00 %


This is 26,000 people shouting in unison, "We like our Green!" In order 
to send such a re-election message, we must win the first election. One 
of the key calculations made in a winning campaign strategy is the 'vote 
deficit'. This is the number of voters the campaign must persuade in 
order to raise your base vote up to 50% + 1.

According to 60 years of sociology research, mass-media can inform large 
numbers of people, but it is very poor at persuasion that changes 
behavior. Even when we do get our message out, as Camejo did in the 
recall debates, it does not change the votes. He got only 2.8%.

Instead persuasion depends upon dedication, time, knowledge, skill, 
volunteers, resources and technical tools. As a result, our capacity to 
earn additional votes is very limited. I mention all this as the reason 
that I say:

*Congratulations on finding a candidate*
*for an office within our grasp!*

However, I would suggest that there are now higher priorities than 
finding more candidates. The first is to convince the candidate that 
you've got that he should win and serve. This is not a given, as people 
run for office for many reasons.

The second is to start the learning process for both the candidate and 
support team. I've participated in many campaigns that ignored the 
mathematics of victory, and I've concluded that it's nearly impossible 
to win without a thorough understanding of this area, among several 
others. And one of the keys to convincing both candidates and volunteers 
to commit to the effort is proving, by demonstrating how, that it can be 
done.

I think it's even better that Dave is an engineer. He and his friends 
could help us build the technology necessary to run effective campaigns, 
large or small.

I stand ready to help,
- Ray


Peter Myers wrote:
> I wanted to put in a notice mid-month that my quest to personally find  
> three candidates for 2010 races is going well. I already have  
> approached Dave Schwaderer, an engineer and a video student of mine  
> who is involved in the Mid-Peninsula Open Spaces project to clean up  
> Mt. Umunhum,  to run for Saratoga Town Council. He plans on attending  
> our December meeting and is very interested in running.
>
> After Dave, I didn't have anyone in mind, so I started talking to my  
> friends. At a party, I asked my friends if they knew anyone who would  
> be interested in running as Greens. My friend listed off four people,  
> with whom I'll be in contact later this week.
>
> It is not difficult for us to find candidates if we start early, look  
> deep in our Rolodexes, and strive to expand our professional and  
> social circles to include more of "The Candidate Type". The U.S. and  
> Santa Clara County in particular has been lulled into the thought that  
> Obama and a Democratic Congress will turn this country into a  
> wonderland within six months, and every time the government  
> disappoints them, they will be receptive to our message of change  
> outside of the two-party system. Every time Barney Frank says that $25  
> billion "might not be enough" to bail out Detroit, we can win votes  
> and candidates.
>
> My challenge from the beginning of the month remains; come to  
> December's meeting ready to talk about at least one prospective  
> candidate, or better yet bring him or her along. I'm sticking to my  
> pledge of bringing three.
>
> Until the meeting, it'd be great if others could share success stories  
> about prospective candidates whom they've approached about running in  
> 2010.
>
> Get the ball rolling.
>
> - Peter
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