[Sosfbay-discuss] Unemployment in CA

[Wes Rolley]

Before judging everything by perception and common sense, it may be 
reasonable to also pay attention to the study published by Univ. of the 
Pacific regarding the Central Valley Unemployment Statistics. Granted 
that all of the MSA's cited originally by Brian are in Agricultural 
Areas. El Centro in the Imperail Valley, Yuba City in the Sacrament 
River Valley, the rest in the San Joaquin Valley.

The report in question is entitled Employment Impacts of Reduced Water 
Supplies to San Joaquin Valley Agriculture and can be read in full here: 
<http://forecast.pacific.edu/water-jobs/Pacific-BFC-Water-Jobs.pdf>

Framing the study in this manner makes sense, since there is a 
significant amount of political pressure to pump more water for the 
specific reason of providing more jobs. There is big money behind this 
(Westlands Water District), major PR firms framing the issue as jobs vs. 
fish, demagoguing Congressmen of both parties pushing it, megabucks 
donors to Sen Feinstein demanding it and very few telling the truth.

Basically, for all of the unemployment, only a small portion is due to 
reduced water deliveries but that is not what everyone is saying and not 
what Fox News has made it's major story. Most of the studies are riddled 
with errors and UoP is quick to point it out.
> Most notably, the same modeling error is part of the influential *PPIC 
> report on the Delta* that endorsed the controversial peripheral canal. 
> The endorsement of the peripheral canal in that report was based on 
> the authors’ judgment that the cost of reducing Delta water exports is 
> too high in comparison to environmental benefits. The 50 per $1 
> million jobs multiplier was used in the PPIC report to exaggerate the 
> social costs of reduced Delta water deliveries.
My view is that some CA agriculture can not compete with foreign imports 
without subsidies, either direct as is the case with rice and cotton, or 
indirect through below market rate Federal and State Water Deliveries. 
So, they look to eliminate as much of the labor cost of the product as 
possible. Still, according to this study, but biggest area of 
unemployment came from the crash of the construction and both home and 
industrial development ground to a halt. The Stockton MSA is where the 
rapid growth was... it is also where the highest unemployment exists.







Tian Harter wrote:
> Some of those California towns listed are in the Central Valley. What's special about the area is that farm labor jobs are very seasonal. 
> What are they harvesting in January? Nothing. Well, maybe a few oranges. What do pickers make in January? Nothing. That ouch's in the statistics. Definitely people are suffering because of this in Fresno, Visalia, Stockton, Modesto, Merced, and Yuba City. I don't know about the others.
>
> Edward wrote:
>   
>> Unemployment rates can be deceptive, because it only measures the labour defined as the employed (both full- and part-time paid jobs) and unemployed (those without work and who have been actively looking for a
>> job in the past 4 weeks). I am not sure about Detroit, but maybe their unemployment rate is lower because people there have given up looking for a nonexistent job.
>>
>> -edward
>>
>>
>> --- On *Tue, 2/2/10, sosfbay-discuss-request at cagreens.org
>> /<sosfbay-discuss-request at cagreens.org>/* wrote:
>>
>>     Message: 1
>>     Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2010 14:51:35 -0800
>>     From: Brian Good <snug.bug at hotmail.com
>>     </mc/compose?to=snug.bug at hotmail.com>>
>>     Subject: [Sosfbay-discuss] Unemployment in CA
>>     To: <sosfbay-discuss at cagreens.org
>>     </mc/compose?to=sosfbay-discuss at cagreens.org>>
>>     Message-ID: <BAY140-W29C1747EAF1C47C9E790609E580 at phx.gbl
>>     </mc/compose?to=BAY140-W29C1747EAF1C47C9E790609E580 at phx.gbl>>
>>     Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>>
>>
>>
>>          The list of the top 379 unemployment metro areas shows a few     likely suspects -- Bismarck, Bend, Cheyenne, Amarillo,  Baton Fouge,  Burlington, Portsmouth, Bangor, New Haven, Scranton, Morgantown, Kokomo, La Crosse.
>>
>>          What's a big surprise to me is that nine California metro areas     have a higher unemployment rate than Detroit.  Of the ten areas nationally with highest unemployment, California owns eight: Fresno, Visalia,    Hanford, Stockton, Modesto, Merced, Yuba City, and  El Centro.
>>
>>
>>     http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm
>>
>>
>>
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>
>   


-- 
"Anytime you have an opportunity to make things better
 and you don't,
 then you are wasting your time on this Earth" Roberto Clemente

Wes Rolley
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http://www.refpub.com/ -- Tel: 408.778.3024