[GPSCC-chat] My latest column for MH Times

[Wes Rolley]

http://www.morganhilltimes.com/opinion/278067-sustained-growth-is-no-longer-feasible

Sustained growth is no longer feasible
10:36 AM
  By Wes Rolley <mailto:editor at morganhilltimes.com>

Last week's Times showed us two reasons that we need to be concerned 
about growth. One was the Times editorial focusing on the fact that 
there are so many housing allotments that have been awarded, but not 
built. The other was the fact that the Morgan Hill Unified School 
District is losing rather than gaining students. The combination 
illustrates two of the pitfalls in planning for growth.

Like any community, Morgan Hill would love to be able to digest 
population growth like a leisurely dinner with friends, filling allotted 
slots each year. We are told that builders are not using their 
allocations for economic reasons, that they can not afford to build 
homes when credit is not available or the foreclosures have made the 
current stock of housing more affordable.

Even if the rate of housing growth were constant, it still does not 
guarantee schools will be able to plan accordingly. There are, again, 
more options for families. Some will send their children to private 
schools. Other families will choose not to have as many children, a 
seemingly wise choice when the economy is no longer predictable.

Our president hardly opens his mouth without mentioning the need to grow 
jobs. In that, his detractors, both Republican and Democratic, seem to 
agree. But the supply of jobs is not growing in the US. Even in 
California where one would expect innovation to create new jobs faster 
than we can fill the old ones, unemployment remains higher than 10 
percent and in neighboring San Benito County, it is higher than 20 percent.

Maybe it is time to stop and ask ourselves whether the historical rates 
of growth are really possible. Increasingly, we are seeing events that 
fall outside the expected range if one's only reference is the 
historical record. Considering climate, the current drought and heat 
dome that has engulfed Texas is unprecedented and nearly unbearable. The 
analysis provided by the Texas State Climatologist shows that the 2011 
drought is clearly outside the range of normal event. It may be enough 
to change the way that people think about living in Texas, about the 
quality of life there, and that will surely affect growth and the 
finances of local government.

For growth to continue, we need to be able to provide physical material 
to support it. But since the Earth is a finite source of everything, it 
may not always be possible. The list of things currently, or soon to be, 
in short supply seems to get longer every day. Lithium for new batteries 
is limited currently to just two major mining sources. The rare earth 
materials used in our increasingly innovative electronics are currently 
80 percent sourced from China and the only other known major source 
requires deep seabed mining technology to be developed.

Californians know that fresh water is in limited supply. And for energy, 
we have to consider that the supplies of both oil and coal have peaked 
while a recent analysis of well head data shows that the supplies of 
natural gas that have been so abundantly advertised have also been 
overestimated by 100 percent. Some have even made the case that we have 
already passed the peak of uranium production with a corresponding 
increase in the costs of nuclear power.

Any one of these limits could have a major negative effect on our 
economy. In particular, the costs of energy production are increasing. 
We have gotten to all of the easy oil, coal and natural gas while we 
seem unable to fully endorse the replacement from renewable sources. 
Taken together, these physical world realities also place limits on 
economic growth, if not now, then in the not to distant future. There is 
a special term for investments that can only return value by securing 
new investments. It is called a Ponzi Scheme. The same term could be 
applied to the idea that we can sustain perpetual economic growth.

It no longer makes sense for any political entity to base fiscal 
policies on the assumption that current spending can be paid for by 
future growth. We can see what this has done for the national economy 
and we are paying for the cost by shedding jobs and a Congressional 
Circus to distract us from reality. We can see what this has done for 
the State of California where we take the money from education. The 
problem we have to solve locally is how to provide for a slowly growing 
population with declining resources. It will require resetting our 
priorities and developing a new vision of what Morgan Hill needs to be.
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